Whether you call it product development, strategic planning or sales forecasting, in the end, it comes down to the same thing: to be successful over time, businesses need people who can see the future. They don't have to be geniuses or visionaries in the mould of Thomas Edison, Henry Ford or Bill Gates. And they certainly don't need to come up with vacuous "vision statements" about having a passion to serve customers and be the best. What every business does need, and always will, is individuals who can see what's coming next.
On one level that may amount to little more than functional foresight. For example, at Lunar New Year, planes will be overbooked, restaurants will be full, and factories will shut down for a week to 10 days. Base any plans around that scenario and you won't go far wrong.
At other levels, though, the decisions required become less operational and more strategic. Managers must foresee not just what's around the corner, but also what lies ahead to keep the company moving in the right direction and at the appropriate speed. That means predicting where markets will grow, which services will sell, what technology will change and how money is to be made.
While hindsight is an exact science, foresight unfortunately isn't. Therefore, companies in every field will continue to launch products that fall flat, pay over the odds for acquisitions, and underfund research projects that could have led to the next big breakthrough. However, such missteps can be kept to a minimum, and successes correspondingly multiplied, if executives are trained to see the future.
There is nothing magical or mystical about this. It is simply the ability to identify trends and trace them to a logical conclusion. What it comes down to is asking oneself a constant series of questions on different themes and applying a little educated guesswork. And it is something everyone should make a habit of, whether they are supervising, selling, designing, inventing, cost cutting, buying or training.
The essential aspect is to spot and examine distinct trends as a prelude to interpreting their impact on the needs or wants of target groups of people.
When mapping trends, the first step is to consider how things stand today in your business and beyond, and to determine which factors have most influence. One recommended approach is to adopt the PESTE model, which stands for political, economic, social, technical and environmental issues. Under each of these headings, it should always be possible to identify several short- and longer-term trends.
For instance, taking politics, one could obviously say that the continued strengthening of relationships between China and Taiwan is important. In economics, the current market conditions seem sure to create conditions of rising debt and increasing unemployment. In social terms, online networking through sites such as Facebook and MySpace shows no sign of abating. The technical arena is moving towards device convergence, mobile computing and greater data security. And one of the greatest environmental trends we're facing today is global warming.
At first glance, any one of these might seem "distant" as far as an individual business is concerned, but closer study shows the big issues will always affect something closer to home. Just consider how the points above could raise the following questions for a Hong Kong-based company. Should we start using direct shipping routes? Is it better to lay off or retrain? Are staff wasting time in the office? When do we need to upgrade the system? And how can we cut our electricity bill?
In each case, the answers will lead to more questions, which is exactly what you want. It shows that the process of "seeing the future" is well and truly under way and that people are using their insights and intellect to look further than the end of the week.
Moving from that to predicting new trends involves elements of science and art. The scientific part may entail research and analysis of anything from historical data and industry numbers to seasonal patterns and overseas markets. The artistic or intuitive part comes in interpreting that data and seeing where it points - or potentially could.
This is where you go beyond the obvious of that day's headlines and look for the subtleties and clues that suggest how things might develop, given the usual likelihoods or a push in a certain direction. It is not rocket science, just awareness and observation followed by analysis and deductive reasoning.
To ensure relevance, though, it is also vital to understand as much as possible about the environment in which your company operates. By doing so, you will not make the mistake of overlooking or dismissing a significant trend just because it doesn't seem to have an immediate impact on your business. As a banker, for example, you might not see much of a link initially between your day-to-day operations and the problem of global warming. However, once you started to hear about customers investing in a new fleet of fuel-efficient vehicles or taking out loans to meet tighter emissions standards, the connection would become clear. The impact on your business might be indirect, but one way or another it is likely to exist.
Once you have developed the habit of identifying trends and examining how they could affect your role and the company's business, the next logical step is to consider how to turn them to your advantage. There are all kinds of possibilities, among them new business opportunities, themes for advertising campaigns, chances to cut costs, volunteer programmes in the community, and enhanced products and services for your customers or theirs.
But when considering the future development and possible impact of any trend, remember that both rational and emotional forces will come into play. For instance, a rational outcome of the current financial crisis is an increase in foreclosures and shrinking retirement funds.
The related emotional impact is a backlash against bankers and their bonuses. Alternatively, in the case of global warming, the rational implications include an increase in average temperatures and initiatives to reduce power consumption. The emotional aspects, though, can range from anger about inaction to ambition to change the world.
Whatever you are examining, it is obviously important to think through both rational and emotional factors to anticipate how people may act or respond. Applying this methodology to the trend of "going green", one could explore such themes as recycling, eliminating plastic bags, or using public transport. On the emotional level, it would be fair to assume employees, customers and the wider community would expect and support action in each of these areas. On the rational level, the challenge would be to implement practical schemes that reflect these trends or help to take them a stage further.
The conclusion might be to develop eco-friendly products, give away recyclable bags, or invest billions in a high-speed rail system. Clearly, the options available vary depending on the company and its scope of business. However, a good rule of thumb is that every organisation can find a link to every major trend if they look at it from multiple perspectives and apply a little intelligence and imagination.
This is the seventh in a 10-part series on Having an Opinion: Developing Your Business Acumen by Jeffrey Markley, partner with Simitri Group International, a specialist in coaching business and individuals in persuasive face-to-face communication leadership. 
